Nice 3-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Auxerre meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nice — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nice 66% and Auxerre 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 57% | Auxerre 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.54 xG and Auxerre 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.002 / defence 0.886 | Auxerre attack 1.076 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.257. Data: 35 Nice games / 35 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nice 45% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 30%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 3.33. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nice 30% | Auxerre 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 45% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nice 1.54 / Auxerre 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.002 / def 0.886 | Auxerre attack 1.076 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Nice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Auxerre xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Auxerre kick off?
Nice vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Nice 3 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Nice vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Auxerre part of?
Nice vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 45% chance of winning, Auxerre a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nice and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
Record (4 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Nice and Auxerre in?
Nice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.00x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.08x) against Nice's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.97
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Nice xG
Total xG
2.73
1.20
Auxerre xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Nice and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Nice and 1.20 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Nice have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 17W 9D 9L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 12W 9D 14L from 35 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nice are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nice have posted 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (11W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Nice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 3D 10L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.40 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Auxerre away?
Nice's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 2.12 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Nice or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Auxerre in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Auxerre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Nice
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Nice have won 1, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Auxerre 1-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 53%, Auxerre 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Nice) and 65% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Nice's games and 65% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Nice's matches and 65% of Auxerre's.
Do Nice and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Auxerre 3-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.54 xG and Auxerre 1.20 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against Auxerre attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nice 45% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 30%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 57%, Auxerre 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.