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Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Nantes 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Nantes 0-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.12 xG and Lyon 2.39 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.77 / defence 1.51 against Lyon attack 1.27 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 16% | Draw 18% | Lyon 65%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lyon's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights