Bordeaux 2-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 47%, yet in-form Saint Etienne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Saint Etienne travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Bordeaux's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bordeaux, 0 for Saint Etienne and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Bordeaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 69% and Saint Etienne 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 66% | Saint Etienne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.79 xG and Saint Etienne 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.991 / defence 1.480 | Saint Etienne attack 0.758 / defence 1.550. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.188. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.550 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Bordeaux games / 32 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 47% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 27%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 3.70. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 70% | Saint Etienne 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 47% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Bordeaux 1.79 / Saint Etienne 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.991 / def 1.480 | Saint Etienne attack 0.758 / def 1.550 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Saint Etienne xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Bordeaux 2 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne part of?
Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 47% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bordeaux and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bordeaux's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
47%
2.12
25%
3.94
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.12
1.33
Saint Etienne xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
5%
21.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.33 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux come into this having played 32 games, going 5W 11D 16L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 0.94 PPG from 32 outings (7W 9D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 0.81 PPG, Saint Etienne on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bordeaux's home form reads 3W 5D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.09 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 5W 11D 16L in their last 32 games (0.81 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 7W 9D 16L in their last 32 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Saint Etienne away?
Bordeaux's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.93 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bordeaux's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bordeaux at 80%, Saint Etienne at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bordeaux) and 47% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bordeaux's games and 53% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bordeaux's recent games and 47% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux and Saint Etienne finished level at 2-2 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.79 xG and Saint Etienne 1.33 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.99 / defence 1.48 against Saint Etienne attack 0.76 / defence 1.55, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 47% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 27%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 66%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.81 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.