Montpellier 0-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Montpellier face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Montpellier host Monaco at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 in Ligue 1 (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Montpellier stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Montpellier's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Monaco — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Monaco's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Montpellier 1.80 PPG, Monaco 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Montpellier's games and 80% of Monaco's (from Montpellier's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Montpellier, 3 for Monaco and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Montpellier 0–2 Monaco — a Monaco win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Monaco in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 56% versus Monaco 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 59% | Monaco 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.53 xG and Monaco 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.002 / defence 1.044 | Monaco attack 1.409 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.397. Monaco have an above-average attack rating of 1.409, which lifts their away xG to 2.06. Data: built from Montpellier's last 70 games and Monaco's last 70.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 28% | Draw 22% | Monaco 49%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 3.51 | Draw 4.53 | Monaco 2.02. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.53 / 2.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Montpellier's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Montpellier 60% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 33 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 28% | Draw 22% | Monaco 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Montpellier 1.53 / Monaco 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.002 / def 1.044 | Monaco attack 1.409 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Monaco (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Monaco xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Montpellier vs Monaco FAQs
What time does Montpellier vs Monaco kick off?
Montpellier vs Monaco kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Monaco?
Montpellier 0 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Montpellier vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Monaco part of?
Montpellier vs Monaco is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 28% chance of winning, Monaco a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Montpellier and Monaco will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Montpellier vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Montpellier's attack rating (1.00) and Monaco's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Montpellier's last 70 games and Monaco's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
28%
3.51
22%
4.53
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Montpellier xG
Total xG
3.59
2.06
Monaco xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
13%
7.81
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
4%
27.41
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Montpellier vs Monaco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Montpellier and 2.06 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Montpellier come into this having played 70 games, going 25W 16D 29L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.80 PPG from 70 outings (37W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Monaco carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Montpellier — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Montpellier's home form reads 10W 12D 13L across their last 35 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.89 points per game from their last 35 away games (19W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.89 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 61%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
Montpellier (Home) vs Monaco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Montpellier
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
❓ Montpellier vs Monaco Form FAQs
What form are Montpellier and Monaco in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 25W 16D 29L in their last 70 games (1.30 PPG), while Monaco have gone 37W 15D 18L in their last 70 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.20 PPG; Monaco away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Monaco in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 17 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Apr 2023, when Montpellier won Monaco 0-4 Montpellier.
Montpellier's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Montpellier
0
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Montpellier vs Monaco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Monaco?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Montpellier have won 3, Monaco have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Monaco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2025: Montpellier 2-1 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 63%, Monaco 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Montpellier and 66% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Montpellier vs Monaco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Montpellier and Monaco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Montpellier's games and 66% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Montpellier and Monaco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Montpellier's matches and 66% of Monaco's.
Do Montpellier and Monaco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Montpellier's recent matches and 77% of Monaco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Montpellier.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Montpellier 0-2 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.53 xG and Monaco 2.06 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Monaco attack 1.41 / defence 1.08, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 28% | Draw 22% | Monaco 49%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 59%, Monaco 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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