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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Montpellier.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Montpellier 0-2 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.42 xG and Le Havre 2.47 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.73 / defence 1.55 against Le Havre attack 1.13 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 21% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 60%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 56%, Le Havre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Le Havre's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Montpellier 0.93 PPG, Le Havre 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights