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Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Metz 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Metz 3-4 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.82 xG and Toulouse 1.49 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.69 / defence 1.37 against Toulouse attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 21% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 53%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 58%, Toulouse 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Toulouse's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.36 PPG, Toulouse 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights