Metz 3-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Toulouse (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Metz face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Saint-Symphorien plays host to Metz versus Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Metz have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Metz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Toulouse away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Toulouse arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Toulouse, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Metz 0–4 Toulouse — a Toulouse win.
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 54% versus Toulouse 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 58% | Toulouse 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Metz surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.82 xG and Toulouse 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.689 / defence 1.368 | Toulouse attack 0.939 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.162. Metz's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Metz's defence rating of 1.368 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Data: built from Metz's last 25 games and Toulouse's last 59.
Result probabilities: Metz 21% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 53%. Fair-value odds: Metz 4.85 | Draw 3.81 | Toulouse 1.88. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Metz 40% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 21% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Metz 0.82 / Toulouse 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.689 / def 1.368 | Toulouse attack 0.939 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Toulouse xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Metz vs Toulouse kick off?
Metz vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Toulouse?
Metz 3 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Metz vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Toulouse part of?
Metz vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 21% chance of winning, Toulouse a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Metz and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Metz vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Metz's attack rating (0.69) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.94x) against Metz's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 25 games and Toulouse's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
21%
4.85
26%
3.81
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Metz xG
Total xG
2.31
1.49
Toulouse xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
5%
21.58
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.8 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Metz and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Metz and 1.49 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Metz have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 22W 14D 23L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 19W 16D 24L from 59 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Metz against 1.24 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 8D 8L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 10W 6D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.31 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Metz (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Metz vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Toulouse away?
Metz's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.62 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Metz or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Toulouse in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Metz and Toulouse, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won Toulouse 4-0 Metz on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Toulouse?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 0, Toulouse have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Metz 3-4 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 48%, Toulouse 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Metz) and 48% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Toulouse in 31%; Metz have failed to score in 28% of games; Toulouse in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Metz's recent matches and 41% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Metz's recent games and 48% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Metz's recent matches and 66% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Metz 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Metz 3-4 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.82 xG and Toulouse 1.49 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.69 / defence 1.37 against Toulouse attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 21% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 53%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 58%, Toulouse 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.36 PPG, Toulouse 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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