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Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.22 xG and Le Havre 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against Le Havre attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 36% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 37%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Le Havre 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Le Havre's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights