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Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Metz 1-3 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.07 xG and Auxerre 0.96 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.74 / defence 1.26 against Auxerre attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 38% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 32%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Auxerre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Auxerre's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights