Lyon 2-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Marseille at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Lyon welcome Marseille to Groupama Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Groupama Stadium, Lyon have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Marseille — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Marseille have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Marseille's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Lyon's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Marseille trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 67% versus Marseille 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lyon 48% | Marseille 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 0.72 xG and Marseille 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.955 / defence 1.068 | Marseille attack 0.885 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.220. Marseille's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Lyon games / 21 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 22% | Draw 32% | Marseille 45%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Marseille 2.22. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Marseille at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Marseille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 80% | Marseille 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 22% | Draw 32% | Marseille 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Lyon 0.72 / Marseille 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.955 / def 1.068 | Marseille attack 0.885 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Marseille (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Marseille xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Marseille kick off?
Lyon vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Marseille?
Lyon 2 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Lyon vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Marseille part of?
Lyon vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 22% chance of winning, Marseille a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lyon and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Marseille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lyon and Marseille in?
Lyon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Marseille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lyon's attack at 0.95x the league average against Marseille's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
22%
4.46
32%
3.09
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Lyon xG
Total xG
1.88
1.15
Marseille xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 17.6 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Lyon and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Lyon and 1.15 for Marseille, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Lyon have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 8W 8D 5L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille's form line: 11W 7D 3L from 21 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.52 PPG, Marseille on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lyon have posted 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L).
On the road, Marseille have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lyon are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.43 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Marseille in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Marseille in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 8W 8D 5L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Marseille have gone 11W 7D 3L in their last 21 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.90 PPG; Marseille away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Lyon or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Marseille in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lyon and Marseille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Lyon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lyon's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lyon
0
Draws
6
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Marseille?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 4, Marseille have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Marseille 3-2 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 80%, Marseille 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Lyon and 10% for Marseille.
On the defensive side: Marseille in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Lyon's recent matches and 20% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lyon's recent games and 10% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Marseille tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Marseille in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Marseille 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Marseille 2-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 0.72 xG and Marseille 1.15 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Marseille attack 0.89 / defence 0.66, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 22% | Draw 32% | Marseille 45%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 48%, Marseille 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Marseille's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.52 PPG, Marseille 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.