Clermont Foot 1-2 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Lyon at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lyon's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Lyon's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 0, Lyon 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lyon in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 49% versus Lyon 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Lyon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.13 xG and Lyon 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.826 / defence 1.581 | Lyon attack 0.973 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.280. Data: 37 Clermont Foot games / 37 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 22% | Lyon 57%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Lyon 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Lyon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 22% | Lyon 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Clermont Foot 1.13 / Lyon 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.826 / def 1.581 | Lyon attack 0.973 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Lyon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Lyon xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lyon kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Clermont Foot 1 - 2 Lyon.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lyon part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 22% chance of winning, Lyon a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Lyon 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Lyon in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.83x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
22%
4.65
22%
4.61
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.10
1.97
Lyon xG
4.65
22%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
3%
33.32
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.97 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 9D 19L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 16W 11D 10L from 37 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Lyon are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.00 PPG from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.73 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Lyon in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Lyon have gone 16W 11D 10L in their last 37 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.00 PPG; Lyon away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Lyon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Lyon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 67%, Lyon 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Clermont Foot) and 50% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Clermont Foot's games and 56% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 50% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Lyon tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lyon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Clermont Foot 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.13 xG and Lyon 1.97 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.83 / defence 1.58 against Lyon attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 22% | Lyon 57%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 49%, Lyon 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.