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Lyon cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Le Havre 4-2 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.16 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Le Havre attack 1.10 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 56% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 23%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Le Havre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights