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Poisson rates Lyon at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Le Havre encounter.

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Match Analysis

Lyon host Le Havre at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lyon at Groupama Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Groupama Stadium.

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Lyon have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lyon, 1 for Le Havre and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 4–0 with Lyon winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Lyon trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Le Havre trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 56% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Le Havre 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.16 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.220 / defence 0.872 | Le Havre attack 1.097 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.378. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Lyon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Lyon games / 59 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lyon 56% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 23%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 50% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.

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