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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lorient and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Moustoir, Regular Season - 24, as Lorient and Auxerre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Auxerre attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 53%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lorient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights