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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lille and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.79 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.47 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 45% | Draw 23% | Stade Brestois 29 32%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 47%, Stade Brestois 29 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lille 1.69 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights