Toulouse vs Monaco – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Monaco at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadium de Toulouse — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.40 PPG versus Monaco's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Toulouse, 4 for Monaco and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 49% versus Monaco 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Monaco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.22 xG and Monaco 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.838 / defence 1.086 | Monaco attack 1.071 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 35 Toulouse games / 36 Monaco games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 28% | Draw 29% | Monaco 43%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Monaco 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 40% | Monaco 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 28% | Draw 29% | Monaco 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Toulouse 1.22 / Monaco 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.838 / def 1.086 | Monaco attack 1.071 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Monaco (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Monaco xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Monaco kick off?
Toulouse vs Monaco is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadium de Toulouse.
Where is Toulouse vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Monaco part of?
Toulouse vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 28% chance of winning, Monaco a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Toulouse and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
Record (8 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 2 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Monaco (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
28%
3.61
29%
3.41
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.77
1.55
Monaco xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.09
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.55 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 9D 14L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monaco's form line: 17W 6D 12L from 35 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.29 PPG, Monaco on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 7W 4D 7L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.71 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Monaco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Monaco have gone 17W 6D 12L in their last 35 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.33 PPG; Monaco away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Toulouse's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Monaco have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Toulouse 2-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 39%, Monaco 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Toulouse) and 61% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Toulouse have failed to score in 39% of games; Monaco in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Toulouse's recent matches and 67% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Toulouse's matches and 61% of Monaco's.
Do Toulouse and Monaco tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Monaco in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.