Lille 2-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Lille (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monaco have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Lille against 1.40 for Monaco. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lille register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Monaco in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lille lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 55% versus Monaco 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.82 xG and Monaco 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.095 / defence 0.971 | Monaco attack 1.019 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.333. Data: 56 Lille games / 56 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 48% | Draw 26% | Monaco 27%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Monaco 3.70. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 90% | Monaco 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 48% | Draw 26% | Monaco 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Lille 1.82 / Monaco 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.095 / def 0.971 | Monaco attack 1.019 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Lille (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Monaco xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Monaco kick off?
Lille vs Monaco kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Monaco?
Lille 2 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Lille vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Monaco part of?
Lille vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 48% chance of winning, Monaco a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lille and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Monaco?
Record (7 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 3 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Lille and Monaco in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Monaco (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.09x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.02x) against Lille's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.90
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Lille xG
Total xG
3.14
1.32
Monaco xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
4%
23.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lille and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Lille and 1.32 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Lille have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 26W 19D 11L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 32W 11D 13L from 56 games, 1.91 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Lille against 1.91 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lille have posted 2.04 PPG from 27 outings (16W 7D 4L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 14W 6D 7L from 27 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 2.00 scored and 1.27 conceded. Monaco's attacking output running into Lille's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 61%.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Monaco in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 26W 19D 11L in their last 56 games (1.73 PPG), while Monaco have gone 32W 11D 13L in their last 56 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Monaco away?
Lille's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.04 PPG; Monaco away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Lille or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Monaco in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lille
3
Draws
2
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Monaco have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Monaco 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Monaco?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Lille, 70% for Monaco — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Lille and 74% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Lille's games and 70% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lille's matches and 74% of Monaco's.
Do Lille and Monaco tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Monaco in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Monaco 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Monaco 2-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.82 xG and Monaco 1.32 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Monaco attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 48% | Draw 26% | Monaco 27%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.73 PPG, Monaco 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.