🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Rennes at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Reims encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Reims travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rennes's home record at Roazhon Park: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Reims — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Reims away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Rennes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Rennes have won 3, Reims 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Reims winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Rennes in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Reims in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rennes 57% and Reims 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 55% | Reims 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.62 xG and Reims 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.951 / defence 0.917 | Reims attack 0.878 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.342. Data: 56 Rennes games / 56 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rennes 48% | Draw 28% | Reims 24%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Reims 4.17. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 40% | Reims 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights