🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Toulouse at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Toulouse encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Toulouse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Le Havre's 30% rate and Toulouse's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 2, Toulouse 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Toulouse winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Le Havre trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Toulouse trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 46% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 52% | Toulouse 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.608 / defence 1.354 | Toulouse attack 0.916 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.331. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Le Havre games / 56 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Toulouse 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Toulouse 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights