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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Le Havre 1-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.65 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.61 / defence 1.35 against Toulouse attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Toulouse's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.88 PPG, Toulouse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights