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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Strasbourg 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.15 xG and Strasbourg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.77 / defence 0.87 against Strasbourg attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 34% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 39%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Strasbourg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights