🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Paris Saint Germain defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.29 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.26 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 37% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 36%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Paris Saint Germain win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights