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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Marseille defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.67 xG and Marseille 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Marseille attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 50% | Draw 27% | Marseille 23%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Marseille win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 48%, Marseille 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Marseille's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights