Le Havre 0-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 40%, yet in-form Lyon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Lyon at Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Le Havre have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Le Havre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lyon stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lyon away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 3 for Lyon and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Le Havre 0–1 Lyon — a Lyon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lyon trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 54% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Lyon 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.38 xG and Lyon 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.873 / defence 0.860 | Lyon attack 1.238 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.162. Lyon have an above-average attack rating of 1.238, which lifts their away xG to 1.24. Data: built from Le Havre's last 59 games and Lyon's last 59.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 26% | Lyon 34%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.49 | Draw 3.81 | Lyon 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lyon (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 50% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 26% | Lyon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Le Havre 1.38 / Lyon 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.873 / def 0.860 | Lyon attack 1.238 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lyon xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Lyon kick off?
Le Havre vs Lyon kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Le Havre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lyon part of?
Le Havre vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, Lyon a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Le Havre and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.87) and Lyon's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 59 games and Lyon's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.81
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.61
1.24
Lyon xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.24 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 12D 31L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.75 PPG from 59 outings (31W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 8W 7D 15L across their last 30 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 30 away games (11W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.78 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 16W 12D 31L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Lyon have gone 31W 10D 18L in their last 59 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.03 PPG; Lyon away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Lyon in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won Le Havre 0-4 Lyon.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 60%, Lyon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Le Havre and 60% for Lyon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Lyon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Le Havre's games and 60% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Le Havre and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Le Havre's matches and 60% of Lyon's.
Do Le Havre and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Le Havre's recent matches and 73% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Lyon finished level at 0-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.38 xG and Lyon 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Lyon attack 1.24 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 26% | Lyon 34%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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