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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Havre and Lorient share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 5, as Le Havre and Lorient drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.99 xG and Lorient 0.91 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Lorient attack 0.60 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 63% | Draw 21% | Lorient 16%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 63%, Lorient 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Lorient's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights