Le Havre 1-1 Lorient – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Le Havre at 63%, yet in-form Lorient provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Lorient meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lorient have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lorient have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lorient are 0.60 PPG clear of Le Havre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lorient half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 63% versus Lorient 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 63% | Lorient 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.99 xG and Lorient 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.962 / defence 1.217 | Lorient attack 0.605 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.230. Lorient bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Le Havre games / 4 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 63% | Draw 21% | Lorient 16%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Lorient 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lorient (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 90% | Lorient 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 63% | Draw 21% | Lorient 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Le Havre 1.99 / Lorient 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.962 / def 1.217 | Lorient attack 0.605 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lorient xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lorient kick off?
Le Havre vs Lorient kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lorient?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Lorient.
Where is Le Havre vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lorient part of?
Le Havre vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 63% chance of winning, Lorient a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Le Havre and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lorient?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 1 | Lorient 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Lorient in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Lorient (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lorient's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (0.60x) against Le Havre's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.77
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.90
0.91
Lorient xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
44.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.91 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lorient?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 4D 23L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lorient sit at 1.95 PPG from 38 outings (23W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lorient carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 4W 2D 13L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Lorient have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lorient's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lorient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.92 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Le Havre have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lorient in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Lorient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lorient in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 11W 4D 23L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Lorient have gone 23W 5D 10L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lorient away?
Lorient's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.74 PPG; Lorient away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Lorient in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 3-0 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lorient — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
2
Draws
0
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lorient?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Lorient have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lorient 0-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lorient?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 63%, Lorient 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Le Havre and 47% for Lorient. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 32% of games; Lorient in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lorient?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Le Havre's games and 47% of Lorient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Le Havre's matches and 47% of Lorient's.
Do Le Havre and Lorient tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Lorient in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Lorient share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 5, as Le Havre and Lorient drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.99 xG and Lorient 0.91 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Lorient attack 0.60 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 63% | Draw 21% | Lorient 16%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 63%, Lorient 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Lorient's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.