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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Havre and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 28, as Le Havre and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.06 xG and Auxerre 0.74 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.77 / defence 0.76 against Auxerre attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 43% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.00 PPG, Auxerre 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights