Clermont Foot 0-5 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Paris Saint Germain in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–6 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 50% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.37 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.912 / defence 1.195 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.307 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.282. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Clermont Foot games / 38 Paris Saint Germain games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 52%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Paris Saint Germain 1.92. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 80% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Clermont Foot 1.37 / Paris Saint Germain 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.912 / def 1.195 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.307 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Paris Saint Germain xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain?
Clermont Foot 0 - 5 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 26% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.91x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.31x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
26%
3.80
22%
4.62
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.38
2.00
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.80
26%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
4%
28.13
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 2.00 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 9W 9D 20L from 38 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. Clermont Foot haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 4L across 38 games — 2.26 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. Paris Saint Germain haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 4W 6D 9L from 19 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris Saint Germain's away record stands at 10W 5D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Paris Saint Germain's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.37 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Pre-Season
Paris Saint Germain
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 26W 8D 4L in their last 38 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.95 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-6 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Clermont Foot, 63% for Paris Saint Germain — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Clermont Foot and 63% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Clermont Foot's games and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Clermont Foot's matches and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Clermont Foot and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Clermont Foot 0-5 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.37 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.00 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 2.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.31 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 52%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 50%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.