Saint Etienne 0-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantes at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Nantes meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 home games — 0.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes away from home this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Nantes are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, Nantes in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 67% and Nantes 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Nantes 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.19 xG and Nantes 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.850 / defence 1.685 | Nantes attack 0.809 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.303. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Saint Etienne games / 18 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 25% | Draw 25% | Nantes 50%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Nantes 2.00. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantes at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 78% | Nantes 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 25% | Draw 25% | Nantes 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Saint Etienne 1.19 / Nantes 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.850 / def 1.685 | Nantes attack 0.809 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Nantes (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Nantes xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nantes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nantes kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Saint Etienne 0 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nantes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 25% chance of winning, Nantes a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Nantes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Nantes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.85) and Nantes's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.81x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
25%
4.04
25%
3.99
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.97
1.78
Nantes xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
4%
23.88
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.78 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 2W 6D 10L from 18 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nantes by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 1W 4D 4L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.33 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Nantes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Nantes have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nantes away?
Nantes's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.78 PPG; Nantes away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Nantes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Saint Etienne 1-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Saint Etienne, 67% for Nantes — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Saint Etienne) and 33% (Nantes).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Saint Etienne's games and 67% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 33% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Nantes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Nantes in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nantes edge out Saint Etienne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Saint Etienne 0-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.19 xG and Nantes 1.78 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.85 / defence 1.69 against Nantes attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 25% | Draw 25% | Nantes 50%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Nantes 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantes's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.