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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Auxerre and Toulouse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre and Toulouse finished level at 2-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.92 xG and Toulouse 0.89 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 0.83 against Toulouse attack 0.83 / defence 0.73, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 32% | Draw 38% | Toulouse 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 56%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Toulouse's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights