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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Auxerre take on Toulouse.

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Analysis

Toulouse make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Auxerre have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.

Toulouse (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Auxerre, 1.40 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Toulouse hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Toulouse winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Toulouse have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 56% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 56% | Toulouse 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.92 xG and Toulouse 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.826 / defence 0.829 | Toulouse attack 0.826 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.305. Toulouse's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Auxerre games / 54 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Auxerre 32% | Draw 38% | Toulouse 30%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Toulouse 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Toulouse 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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