Auxerre 2-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Auxerre take on Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Auxerre, 1.40 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Toulouse hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Toulouse winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Toulouse have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 56% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 56% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.92 xG and Toulouse 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.826 / defence 0.829 | Toulouse attack 0.826 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.305. Toulouse's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Auxerre games / 54 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 32% | Draw 38% | Toulouse 30%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Toulouse 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Toulouse 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 32% | Draw 38% | Toulouse 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Auxerre 0.92 / Toulouse 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.826 / def 0.829 | Toulouse attack 0.826 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Toulouse xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Toulouse kick off?
Auxerre vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Auxerre 2 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Auxerre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Toulouse part of?
Auxerre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 32% chance of winning, Toulouse a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Auxerre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Record (5 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 4W.
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.83x) against Auxerre's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
38%
2.60
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Auxerre xG
Total xG
1.81
0.89
Toulouse xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 14.6 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.89 for Toulouse, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 54 games, going 26W 14D 14L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.28 PPG from 54 outings (18W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 17W 7D 2L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (11W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.17 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 26W 14D 14L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 18W 15D 21L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Toulouse away?
Auxerre's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.23 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Toulouse in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Toulouse have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 46%, Toulouse 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Auxerre) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Toulouse in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Auxerre's recent matches and 42% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Toulouse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Toulouse finished level at 2-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.92 xG and Toulouse 0.89 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 0.83 against Toulouse attack 0.83 / defence 0.73, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 32% | Draw 38% | Toulouse 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 56%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.