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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Auxerre and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 2.15 xG and Saint Etienne 0.74 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.55, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 68% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 10%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Saint Etienne 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.71 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights