Angers 0-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Angers welcome Toulouse to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Toulouse — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Toulouse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Angers, 1 for Toulouse and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 56% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 55% | Toulouse 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.57 xG and Toulouse 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.825 / defence 1.416 | Toulouse attack 1.003 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.262. Toulouse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Angers games / 26 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 33% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 42%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Toulouse 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 90% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 33% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Angers 1.57 / Toulouse 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.825 / def 1.416 | Toulouse attack 1.003 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Toulouse xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Toulouse kick off?
Angers vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Angers 0 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Angers vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Toulouse part of?
Angers vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 33% chance of winning, Toulouse a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Angers and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Angers and Toulouse in?
Angers (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
33%
3.05
25%
3.97
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Angers xG
Total xG
3.36
1.79
Toulouse xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Angers and 1.79 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Angers have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 12W 15D 37L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 32W 15D 17L from 64 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (8W 4D 19L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 12W 7D 12L from 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.92 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 12W 15D 37L in their last 64 games (0.80 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 32W 15D 17L in their last 64 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 0.90 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Angers or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Toulouse in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Angers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 61%, Toulouse 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Angers and 61% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 26% of games; Toulouse in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Angers's games and 55% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Angers's matches and 61% of Toulouse's.
Do Angers and Toulouse tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.57 xG and Toulouse 1.79 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.82 / defence 1.42 against Toulouse attack 1.00 / defence 1.33, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 33% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 42%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 55%, Toulouse 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.