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Dominant Rennes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Auxerre 0-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.43 xG and Rennes 1.02 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.75 / defence 0.94 against Rennes attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 47% | Draw 27% | Rennes 27%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Rennes 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rennes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.05 PPG, Rennes 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights