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Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Auxerre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.27 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.64 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.26 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 30% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 46%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Paris Saint Germain 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights