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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Auxerre face Paris Saint Germain.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.

Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Paris Saint Germain's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.50 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Paris Saint Germain have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Auxerre's 0 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Paris Saint Germain winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Auxerre in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Paris Saint Germain 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.27 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.895 / defence 1.044 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.264 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.242. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Auxerre games / 52 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Auxerre 30% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 46%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Paris Saint Germain 2.17. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.

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