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Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre and Paris FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.37 xG and Paris FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Paris FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 31%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Paris FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Paris FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights