Auxerre 0-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Nantes to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nantes — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Nantes have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Auxerre have won 1, Nantes 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Auxerre 0–1 Nantes — a Nantes win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nantes in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 46% versus Nantes 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Nantes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.14 xG and Nantes 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.782 / defence 0.885 | Nantes attack 0.743 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.192. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Nantes's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Auxerre's last 62 games and Nantes's last 61.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 32% | Nantes 25%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.30 | Draw 3.15 | Nantes 4.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Nantes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 20% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 32% | Nantes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Auxerre 1.14 / Nantes 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.782 / def 0.885 | Nantes attack 0.743 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Nantes xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Nantes kick off?
Auxerre vs Nantes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Nantes?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Auxerre vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nantes part of?
Auxerre vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 44% chance of winning, Nantes a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Auxerre and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Auxerre vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Nantes's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 62 games and Nantes's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
44%
2.30
32%
3.15
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Auxerre xG
Total xG
1.93
0.78
Nantes xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.78 for Nantes, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 15W 17D 29L from 61 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 18D 31L across 61 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.02 PPG, Nantes on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 9D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 5W 10D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.03 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Nantes
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Current Season
Nantes
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Nantes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 17D 29L in their last 61 games (1.02 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 18D 31L in their last 61 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nantes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.30 PPG; Nantes away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nantes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 1, Nantes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Auxerre 0-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 37%, Nantes 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 50% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 37% of games; Nantes in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Nantes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Auxerre's recent matches and 67% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Auxerre's recent matches and 73% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Nantes finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.14 xG and Nantes 0.78 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.78 / defence 0.89 against Nantes attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 44% | Draw 32% | Nantes 25%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Nantes 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantes's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.02 PPG, Nantes 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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