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Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre and Nantes finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.14 xG and Nantes 0.78 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.78 / defence 0.89 against Nantes attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 44% | Draw 32% | Nantes 25%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Nantes 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nantes's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.02 PPG, Nantes 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights