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Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Auxerre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.69 xG and Le Havre 1.19 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 49% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 27%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 60%, Le Havre 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Le Havre's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.17 PPG, Le Havre 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights