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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Auxerre host Le Havre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Auxerre — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 0.80 PPG versus Le Havre's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 3 for Le Havre and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Le Havre winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Auxerre in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Le Havre in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 55% versus Le Havre 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 60% | Le Havre 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.69 xG and Le Havre 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.834 / defence 0.998 | Le Havre attack 0.928 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.285. Data: 42 Auxerre games / 42 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Auxerre 49% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 27%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Le Havre 3.70. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.

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