Lens 1-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lens at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lens vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lens and Auxerre meet at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lens have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lens's home record at Stade Bollaert-Delelis: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Lens are significantly better at Stade Bollaert-Delelis than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Lens's 2.30 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lens have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Lens half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 57% versus Auxerre 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 55% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 2.62 xG and Auxerre 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 1.286 / defence 0.726 | Auxerre attack 0.678 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.341. Lens carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Lens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lens's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Lens games / 18 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 79% | Draw 15% | Auxerre 7%. Fair-value odds: Lens 1.27 | Draw 6.67 | Auxerre 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Lens (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lens 60% | Auxerre 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 79% | Draw 15% | Auxerre 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 45% | xG Lens 2.62 / Auxerre 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 1.286 / def 0.726 | Auxerre attack 0.678 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Lens (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Lens xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Auxerre xG
45%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Auxerre kick off?
Lens vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Lens 1 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Lens vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Auxerre part of?
Lens vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 79% chance of winning, Auxerre a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lens and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lens and Auxerre in?
Lens (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lens's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.62. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.68x) against Lens's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
79%
1.27
15%
6.85
7%
15.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Lens xG
Total xG
3.28
0.66
Auxerre xG
1.27
79%
Home win
6.85
15%
Draw
15.11
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
7%
13.75
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lens and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Lens and 0.66 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Lens have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 29W 16D 11L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 22W 17D 17L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Lens against 1.48 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lens have posted 2.18 PPG from 28 outings (18W 7D 3L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 10W 9D 9L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lens are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.32 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 29W 16D 11L in their last 56 games (1.84 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Auxerre away?
Lens's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 2.18 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lens have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lens have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lens
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lens have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Lens 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Auxerre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 54%, Auxerre 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lens) and 54% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lens's games and 64% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lens vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lens's matches and 54% of Auxerre's.
Do Lens and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lens have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Auxerre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Auxerre 1-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 2.62 xG and Auxerre 0.66 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lens fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.29 / defence 0.73 against Auxerre attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 79% | Draw 15% | Auxerre 7%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 55%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lens 1.84 PPG, Auxerre 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lens win broke the near-deadlock. Lens (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.