First Half Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest first-half goal probability — Sunday 21 September 2025
First half goals (over 0.5) lands when at least one goal goes in before the break. Our prediction model scales each fixture's full-match expected goals by the share of goals its league actually scores in the first half, measured from recent results. Only fixtures with a 75%+ chance of a first-half goal are shown.
20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 21 September 2025. Monaco vs Metz sits top on 83% in the Ligue 1. The shortlist runs from 83% down to 76%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans six different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 17 landed the first half goals market — 85%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Ligue 1 · France
83%
Super League · China
82%
Super League · China
82%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
82%
Serie A · Brazil
81%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
81%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
80%
Bundesliga · Germany
80%
Serie A · Brazil
79%
Bundesliga · Germany
79%
Premier League · Russia
78%
La Liga · Spain
78%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
78%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
77%
Serie A · Italy
77%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
76%
Eliteserien · Norway
76%
Eliteserien · Norway
76%
Bundesliga · Germany
76%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
76%
Showing top 20 fixtures by first-half goal probability (a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
First Half Goals — common questions
What does the First Half Goals market mean?
First Half Goals settles on whether a match produces at least one goal before half-time. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate first half goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The first-half goal probability shown here is the probability of at least one goal before half-time — the full-match expected goals scaled by the share of goals each league actually produces in the first half, measured from its recent results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for First Half Goals on Sunday 21 September 2025?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Monaco vs Metz at 83% first-half goal probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these first half goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.