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Poisson model favours Sirius (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face Degerfors IF.

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Full Analysis

Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 21 September 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sirius have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Sirius's 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Degerfors IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 7 previous meetings, Sirius are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Sirius a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Sirius — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 64% and Degerfors IF 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 62% | Degerfors IF 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.41 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.140 / defence 0.850 | Degerfors IF attack 0.880 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.354. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Sirius games / 23 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sirius 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Degerfors IF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | Degerfors IF 60% BTTS from recent games.

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