Mirassol 2-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mirassol and Juventude meet at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mirassol have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventude (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Mirassol's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Juventude's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mirassol — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Juventude — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 68% versus Juventude 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 46% | Juventude 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 2.75 xG and Juventude 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.349 / defence 1.053 | Juventude attack 0.812 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.103. Mirassol carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Mirassol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Mirassol games / 60 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 75% | Draw 15% | Juventude 10%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Juventude 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 80% | Juventude 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 75% | Draw 15% | Juventude 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 57% | xG Mirassol 2.75 / Juventude 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.349 / def 1.053 | Juventude attack 0.812 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Juventude xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Juventude kick off?
Mirassol vs Juventude kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Juventude?
Mirassol 2 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Mirassol vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Juventude part of?
Mirassol vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 75% chance of winning, Juventude a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mirassol and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Juventude in?
Mirassol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Juventude (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.75. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.81x) against Mirassol's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.89
10%
9.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.70
0.94
Juventude xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
9.77
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
6%
15.72
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
1%
153.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.94 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mirassol come into this having played 22 games, going 10W 9D 3L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (6W 3D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mirassol's home form reads 6W 4D 0L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.86 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Juventude in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 10W 9D 3L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Juventude have gone 6W 3D 13L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Juventude away?
Mirassol's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.20 PPG; Juventude away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Juventude?
From 2 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 1, Juventude have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Mirassol 2-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Juventude?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 80%, Juventude 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Mirassol and 70% for Juventude. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventude in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Mirassol's games and 30% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Mirassol's matches and 70% of Juventude's.
Do Mirassol and Juventude tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Juventude in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Juventude 2-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.75 xG and Juventude 0.94 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juventude landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.35 / defence 1.05 against Juventude attack 0.81 / defence 1.50, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 75% | Draw 15% | Juventude 10%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 46%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventude's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.