First Half Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest first-half goal probability — Saturday 5 October 2024
First half goals (over 0.5) lands when at least one goal goes in before the break. Our prediction model scales each fixture's full-match expected goals by the share of goals its league actually scores in the first half, measured from recent results. Only fixtures with a 75%+ chance of a first-half goal are shown.
The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 5 October 2024. Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel led the list at 88% in the Bundesliga. The shortlist runs from 88% down to 77%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
Bundesliga supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 18 landed the first half goals market — 90%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Bundesliga · Germany
88%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
83%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
82%
Bundesliga · Austria
82%
Primera División · Chile
80%
League One · England
80%
Bundesliga · Germany
80%
La Liga · Spain
80%
League Two · England
79%
Bundesliga · Austria
78%
Ligue 2 · France
78%
Premier League · England
78%
Süper Lig · Turkey
78%
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
78%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
78%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
77%
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
77%
Premier League · England
77%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
77%
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
77%
Showing top 20 fixtures by first-half goal probability (a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
First Half Goals — common questions
What does the First Half Goals market mean?
First Half Goals settles on whether a match produces at least one goal before half-time. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate first half goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The first-half goal probability shown here is the probability of at least one goal before half-time — the full-match expected goals scaled by the share of goals each league actually produces in the first half, measured from its recent results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for First Half Goals on Saturday 5 October 2024?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Bayer Leverkusen vs Holstein Kiel at 88% first-half goal probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these first half goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.