Las Palmas 0-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 47%, yet in-form Celta Vigo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Las Palmas and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Las Palmas's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas's home record at Estadio de Gran Canaria: 0W 5D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Celta Vigo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Celta Vigo are 0.90 PPG clear of Las Palmas in recent La Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Celta Vigo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Las Palmas lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Las Palmas goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 48% versus Celta Vigo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 35% | Celta Vigo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 2.06 xG and Celta Vigo 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 1.018 / defence 1.236 | Celta Vigo attack 1.210 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.031. Celta Vigo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Las Palmas's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Celta Vigo have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Las Palmas games / 46 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 26%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Celta Vigo 3.85. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Celta Vigo (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 60% | Celta Vigo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Las Palmas 2.06 / Celta Vigo 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 1.018 / def 1.236 | Celta Vigo attack 1.210 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Las Palmas 0 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo part of?
Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 47% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Las Palmas and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Celta Vigo?
Record (2 meetings): Las Palmas 1W | Draws 0 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Celta Vigo in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (1.02) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.21x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.78
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
3.60
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
3%
29.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.54 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Las Palmas come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 13D 23L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 1.11 PPG from 46 outings (13W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.11 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Las Palmas's home form reads 6W 8D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Celta Vigo have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Las Palmas are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.33 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 63%.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 13D 23L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 13W 12D 21L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Celta Vigo away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.18 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-1 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
1
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Celta Vigo?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Celta Vigo 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 54%, Celta Vigo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Las Palmas) and 73% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 27% of games; Celta Vigo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Las Palmas's games and 68% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Las Palmas's recent games and 73% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 2.06 xG and Celta Vigo 1.54 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 1.02 / defence 1.24 against Celta Vigo attack 1.21 / defence 1.39, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 26%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 35%, Celta Vigo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 0.93 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.