Dibba Al Hisn 1-6 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dibba Al Hisn at 41%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Jazira travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Dibba Al Hisn. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 14:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al Hisn stand at 0W 0D 4L from 4 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dibba Al Hisn have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Jazira are 1.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Dibba Al Hisn in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al Hisn 75% versus Al-Jazira 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al Hisn 75% | Al-Jazira 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.73 xG and Al-Jazira 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.792 / defence 1.325 | Al-Jazira attack 0.755 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.922 / away 1.634. Dibba Al Hisn's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Dibba Al Hisn games / 30 Al-Jazira games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 41% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 37%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Jazira 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dibba Al Hisn are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dibba Al Hisn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al Hisn 75% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 41% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 1.73 / Al-Jazira 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.792 / def 1.325 | Al-Jazira attack 0.755 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.922 / away 1.634 • Poisson stance: Dibba Al Hisn (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Al-Jazira xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 14:10 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira?
Dibba Al Hisn 1 - 6 Al-Jazira.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 41% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dibba Al Hisn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira in?
Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dibba Al Hisn's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al-Jazira's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Dibba Al Hisn's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dibba Al Hisn Win
41%
2.47
23%
4.39
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
3.36
1.64
Al-Jazira xG
2.47
41%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.65
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 1.64 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Dibba Al Hisn have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 4L record — L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al Hisn.
Goals in Recent Form
Dibba Al Hisn are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Dibba Al Hisn have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dibba Al Hisn
0
Draws
2
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Al-Jazira have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Al-Jazira 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al Hisn 75%, Al-Jazira 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dibba Al Hisn and 50% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al Hisn play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Dibba Al Hisn's recent matches and 25% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dibba Al Hisn's matches and 50% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Dibba Al Hisn have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Dibba Al Hisn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-6 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.73 xG and Al-Jazira 1.64 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 1.64 projection by 4.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.79 / defence 1.32 against Al-Jazira attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 4/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 41% | Draw 23% | Al-Jazira 37%, with Dibba Al Hisn to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 75%, Al-Jazira 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Dibba Al Hisn shipped 6 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira scored 6 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.