VPS 0-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VPS face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host KuPS at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VPS are significantly better at Lemonsoft Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour KuPS — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for VPS, 4 for KuPS and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 1–3 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
KuPS trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 59% versus KuPS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 49% | KuPS 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.05 xG and KuPS 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.039 / defence 0.996 | KuPS attack 1.145 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.167. KuPS's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 VPS games / 44 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 29% | Draw 27% | KuPS 43%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | KuPS 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | KuPS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 25 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 29% | Draw 27% | KuPS 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG VPS 1.05 / KuPS 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.039 / def 0.996 | KuPS attack 1.145 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: KuPS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.33
KuPS xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs KuPS kick off?
VPS vs KuPS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs KuPS?
VPS 0 - 2 KuPS.
Where is VPS vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs KuPS part of?
VPS vs KuPS is a Championship Group - 25 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 29% chance of winning, KuPS a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both VPS and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
Record (8 meetings): VPS 2W | Draws 2 | KuPS 4W.
What form are VPS and KuPS in?
VPS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. KuPS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.64
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
VPS xG
Total xG
2.38
1.33
KuPS xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are VPS and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for VPS and 1.33 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 18W 13D 20L from 51 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 8L across 51 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 13W 9D 4L across 26 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.80 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and KuPS in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 18W 13D 20L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while KuPS have gone 28W 15D 8L in their last 51 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.54 PPG; KuPS away: 1.85 PPG.
Have VPS or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, KuPS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
VPS's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VPS
2
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 2, KuPS have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VPS and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when KuPS 2-0 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 54%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (VPS) and 38% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: VPS keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; KuPS in 35%; VPS have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of VPS's recent matches and 50% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of VPS's recent games and 38% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and KuPS tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, KuPS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat VPS 0-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Championship Group - 25, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.05 xG and KuPS 1.33 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VPS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against KuPS attack 1.15 / defence 0.73, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 29% | Draw 27% | KuPS 43%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 49%, KuPS 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.