KuPS 0-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KuPS face AC Oulu.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Savon Sanomat Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 26. The match kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's home record at Savon Sanomat Areena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Oulu have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of AC Oulu's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, KuPS have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with AC Oulu managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–2 with AC Oulu winning.
The historical record gives KuPS a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 56% versus AC Oulu 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 50% | AC Oulu 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.67 xG and AC Oulu 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.183 / defence 1.198 | AC Oulu attack 0.911 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.167. Data: 44 KuPS games / 44 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 47% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 29%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | AC Oulu 3.45. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 70% | AC Oulu 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 26 | Venue: Savon Sanomat Areena • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 47% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG KuPS 1.67 / AC Oulu 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.183 / def 1.198 | AC Oulu attack 0.911 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: KuPS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AC Oulu xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs AC Oulu kick off?
KuPS vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 8 October 2026 at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
KuPS 0 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is KuPS vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs AC Oulu part of?
KuPS vs AC Oulu is a Championship Group - 26 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 47% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both KuPS and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and AC Oulu?
Record (9 meetings): KuPS 6W | Draws 1 | AC Oulu 2W.
What form are KuPS and AC Oulu in?
KuPS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.91x) against KuPS's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.16
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.95
1.27
AC Oulu xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are KuPS and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for KuPS and 1.27 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS's recent record stands at 29W 15D 8L from 52 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 27L across 52 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 15W 6D 4L from 25 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 8W 3D 14L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 29W 15D 8L in their last 52 games (1.96 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 18W 7D 27L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or AC Oulu away?
KuPS's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.04 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.08 PPG.
Have KuPS or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 8 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: AC Oulu have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 4-1 on 8 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
1
Draws
3
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 6, AC Oulu have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2026, when KuPS 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and AC Oulu?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 64%, AC Oulu 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (KuPS) and 52% (AC Oulu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of KuPS's games and 52% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KuPS vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of KuPS's matches and 52% of AC Oulu's.
Do KuPS and AC Oulu tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat KuPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat KuPS 0-1 at Savon Sanomat Areena, Championship Group - 26, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.67 xG and AC Oulu 1.27 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KuPS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.18 / defence 1.20 against AC Oulu attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 47% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 29%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 50%, AC Oulu 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Oulu's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with AC Oulu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.